Oxford, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

069
FXUS64 KMEG 101054
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
554 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

- As we round out this workweek and head into the weekend,
  temperatures will begin to gradually warm up into the mid 90s.
  Shower and thunderstorm chances will also remain through the
  weekend, with coverage being heightened in the afternoons.

- A more pronounced warming trend is forecast early next week,
  with daytime highs reaching the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday.
  Heat headlines may be necessary next workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Yet another muggy overnight period is on display at this hour with
current temperatures in the mid to upper 70s under mostly clear
skies and calm winds at the surface. Several sites have begun to
fog with reduced visibilities along already saturated soils and a
present low-level inversion. As we edge closer to sunrise and
skies continue to clear, fog is expected to spread. As far as
dense fog is concerned, we will keep a close eye on visibilities
and issue a Dense Fog Advisory if warranted (1/4 sm). Fog should
lift shortly after sunrise as a slight uptick in winds occurs and
the inversion lifts. The latest NQA radar sweep indicates very
light returns. As weak ridging continues to build, rain chances
will continue to diminish through mid-morning.

By this afternoon, a weak trough will push into the ArkLaTex
region, giving lift to isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly
along and south of the I-40 corridor. PWATs will be lower than
yesterday, to around 1.8 inches, which will be efficient enough
to support pop-up summertime convection. Nuisance flooding may be
a concern this afternoon, mainly over north Mississippi from the
past several days of rainfall. Rain chances will taper off around
sunset as a ridging pattern builds in. Areas north of I-40 will
see warmer temperatures today due to lack of rainfall and
decreased cloud cover.

Moving into tomorrow, weak southwesterly flow will build over the
region. A few very subtle, embedded shortwaves will give lift to
another day of afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances over much
of the Mid-South, with the greatest chances along and south of
I-40. PWATs will once again hover around 1.8 inches, resulting in
efficient moisture for storm development in the afternoon. For
the weekend, another upper-level trough will dip down over the
southern Great Lakes region which will surge PWATs back around
2.0 inches, nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year.
Thus, resulting in a pretty soggy weekend with shower and
thunderstorm chances around 50-60%. We will also warm into the low
to mid 90s this weekend as ridging over the Gulf begins to
amplify. Though, aforementioned afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will likely keep heat indices below Heat Advisory
criteria (105F).

Looking into next workweek, the aforementioned Gulf ridge will
amplify even more, impacting temperatures over the Mid-South
further. Temperatures will begin to climb as shower and
thunderstorm chances decrease. By Tuesday, much of the area will
edge into the mid 90s with heat indices creeping near Heat
Advisory criteria. As far as heat headlines are concerned,
decisions will be made on a day to day basis. Hints at some
relief in heat returns in the latter part of the week as a cold
front moves across the the Mississippi Valley, dropping
temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s. With such a pattern in
mid July, this will likely heighten severe weather concerns for
mid-week. Though we are still a little too far out pinpoint
exactly what will play out. Something to keep an eye on...

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Patchy fog has developed across the airspace, with periods of
IFR/LIFR vis at MKL. Any fog will quickly mix out by 13Z to 14Z.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected. Some -SHRA/-TSRA will
be possible again this afternoon mainly across north MS, so have
carried a PROB30 grouping for TUP to account for the uncertainty.
South/southwesterly winds continue, up to around 7 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Hot and humid conditions will remain for the foreseeable future.
Rain chances will be present through the weekend. As such,
minimum relative humidity values will remain above 50%, keeping
fire weather concerns at a minimum.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA